07.07.2020 / Car production forecast for 2020-2021

In January-May 2020, car production fell by 37.6% on the same period of 2019, in May 2020 the decrease was 57.2%.

Except Mercedes-Benz Manufacturing Rus and Haval Motor Manufacturing Rus, which launched production in May 2019, all car manufacturers reduced their production for the reporting period. The reduction varied from 27.6% (Mazda Sollers Manufacturing Rus) to 54.6% (PSMA Rus). In addition to the far Eastern enterprise, Nissan Manufacturing Rus (including assembly at the Renault Russia plant), UAZ and Toyota Motor subsidiary showed decrease in the production results by less than 30%.

According to the baseline forecast scenario, in 2020 car production will decrease by 28.5% on 2019 and will amount to 1 082.1 thousand units. Under the optimistic scenario, production will fall by 25.0%, while under the pessimistic one - by 33.5%. If restrictive measures caused by the second wave of COVID-19 are re-introduced, the production may be down by 37.2%.

The vehicle production forecast is based on three scenarios (baseline, optimistic and pessimistic) and updated taking into account production results in May 2020.

When updating the forecast the resumption of production of all vehicle and component types in Russia and abroad, state measures aimed to support the automotive market in 2020-2021 were taken into account. Manufacturers gradually resumed their operation, but some of them work with restrictions: one shift, four-day workweek, etc.

Source: «Vehicle production forecast for 2020-2021» press-pelease by RAMR