19.12.2022 / New truck market forecast for 2023

According to the basic forecast scenario, new truck sales will reach 86,74 thousand in 2023. According to the optimistic scenario, the sales will reach 92,79 thousand, according to the pessimistic scenario the sales will not exceed 79,01 thousand.

Basic forecast scenario takes into account following tendencies: 

• Sanction measures against Russia will be actual up to the end of 2023.
• KAMAZ will realize 90% of domestic market sales in 2023.
• GAZ, URAL and MAZ will realize more vehicles on the domestic market in 2023 in comparison with 2022, but will not reach average sales volume actual before 24^th February 2022.
• Chinese brands will increase their share on the Russian market and compensate the share of BIG-7 brands which have left the market.
• BIG-7 brands will not get back to the Russian market, their vehicles will be supplied into Russia only through parallel import in small amounts.
• Macroeconomic situation in Russia will still be unstable. The GDP will decline by 0,4% in comparison with 2022, the inflation rate will reach 10%.
• Infrastructure projects included in «Secure and high-quality roads» program will still be realized in 2023. Besides that, new road construction, reparation, conservation sand exploitation projects requiring trucks will be realized. Commercial vehicles will also be needed for reparation of damaged infrastructure on new territories.
• Trucking industry volume in 2023 will slightly exceed the figures of 2022 due to joining of new territories. Sanctions imposed by EU-countries against Russian trucking companies will be actual. International trucking volumes will slightly exceed the figures of 2022 because of their refocusing on the East direction and growth of trade turnover with Asian countries.

According to the basic forecast scenario, Russian truck market will consist mostly of domestic, Chinese and Belorussian brands in 2023.

Optimistic forecast scenario takes into account following tendencies: 

• Sanction measures against Russia will be actual up to the end of 2023.
• KAMAZ will realize 100% of domestic market sales in 2023.
• GAZ, URAL and MAZ will realize more vehicles on the domestic market in 2023 in comparison with 2022. In the 4^th quarter they will reach average sales volume actual before 24th February 2022.
• Chinese brands will increase their share on the Russian market and compensate the share of BIG-7 brands which have left the market.
• BIG-7 brands will not get back to the Russian market, their vehicles will be supplied into Russia only through parallel import in small amounts.
• Macroeconomic situation in Russia will stabilize. The GDP will grow by 0,5% in comparison with 2022, the inflation will slow down and reach the rate of 7,5%.
• Infrastructure projects included in «Secure and high-quality roads» program will still be realized in 2023. Besides that, new road construction, reparation, conservation sand exploitation projects requiring trucks will be realized. Commercial vehicles will also be needed for reparation of damaged infrastructure on new territories.
• Trucking industry volume in 2023 will exceed the figures of 2022 due to joining of new territories. Sanctions imposed by EU-countries against Russian trucking companies will be actual. International trucking volumes will exceed the figures of 2022 because of their refocusing on the East direction and growth of trade turnover with Asian countries.

According to the optimistic forecast scenario, Russian truck market will consist mostly of domestic, Chinese and Belorussian brands in 2023. 

Pessimistic forecast scenario takes into account following tendencies: 

• Sanction measures against Russia will be actual up to the end of 2023 and will be toughened.
• KAMAZ will realize 80% of domestic market sales in 2023.
• GAZ, URAL and MAZ will realize fewer vehicles on the domestic market in 2023 in comparison with 2022 and will not reach average sales volume actual before 24^th February 2022.
• Chinese brands will increase their share on the Russian market, but they will only partly compensate the share of BIG-7 brands which have left the market.
• BIG-7 brands will not get back to the Russian market, their vehicles will be supplied into Russia only through parallel import in small amounts.
• Macroeconomic situation in Russia will worsen. The GDP will decline by 2,5% in comparison with 2022, the inflation rate will reach 15%.
• Infrastructure projects included in «Secure and high-quality roads» program will still be realized in 2023. Besides that, new road construction, reparation, conservation sand exploitation projects requiring trucks will be realized. Commercial vehicles will also be needed for reparation of damaged infrastructure on new territories.
• Trucking industry volume in 2023 will slightly exceed the figures of 2022 due to joining of new territories. Sanctions imposed by EU-countries against Russian trucking companies will be actual. International trucking volume may decline, if China and other Asian countries partly support the sanction measures against Russia – in this case the trading turnover between Russia and the mentioned countries will decrease.

According to the pessimistic forecast scenario, Russian truck market will consist mostly of domestic, Chinese and Belorussian brands in 2023.

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