11.12.2023 / New LCV sales forecast for 2024

According to the baseline forecast scenario, in 2024, new LCV sales will amount to 99.79 thousand units. Under the optimistic scenario, sales will reach 103.37 thousand units, while under the pessimistic scenario, they will reach 93.46 thousand units.

The baseline forecast scenario is based on the following prerequisites:

In 2024, GAZ LCV sales in the Russian market will grow slightly, by 0.36% on 2023.
UAZ LCV sales will grow slightly as well (by 1.76%), while sales of SOLLERS light commercial vehicles will grow significantly. In 2024, SOLLERS plans to launch production of new versions of Sollers Atlant and Argo light commercial vehicles, including those equipped with electric engines.
AVTOVAZ will resume production of Largus vehicles only in summer of 2024, their sales in the market will be small. Sales of other LCV manufactured in Russia will increase in 2024, but they will be only slightly higher than those in 2023. Sales of electric EVM LCV will remain small.
In 2024, sales of Chinese brands in the Russian LCV market will grow by 3.39% on 2023. They will be negatively affected by the increased recycling tax for these vehicles.
LCV of other brands will be imported into Russia under parallel import in small volumes, less than in 2023 due to the increased recycling tax, stricter requirements for vehicle import by individuals, the high price for these vehicles, the impossibility of full-fledged warranty and service, and the unsuitability of these vehicles for Russian operating conditions.
State support measures for the LCV market will be implemented in 2024. The volume of their financing in 2024 will increase on 2023.
Starting Q II 2024, the key rate will likely decrease. This will result in the increase in new vehicle sales on credit and lease.
The macroeconomic situation in Russia will remain unstable. In 2024, GDP may grow by 1.4% on 2023, inflation will be 6.2%. Retail trade turnover may grow by 1.7% in 2024, while freight turnover of motor vehicles - by 5.6%.

According to the baseline forecast scenario, mainly Russian and lesser Chinese brands will continue to be sold in the Russian LCV market in 2024. New vehicles imported under parallel imports and those of foreign brands manufactured on the territory of the People's Republic of China and "friendly" countries to the Russian Federation will also be sold.

Under the baseline scenario, 99.79 thousand new LCV may be sold in 2024.

The optimistic forecast scenario is based on the following prerequisites:

Sanctions against the Russian Federation will remain until the end of 2024.
In 2024, GAZ LCV sales in the Russian market will grow by 1.09% on 2023.
UAZ LCV sales will grow by 2.89%, while sales of SOLLERS light commercial vehicles will grow significantly (their sales will be higher than under the baseline scenario). In 2024, SOLLERS plans to launch production of new versions of Sollers Atlant and Argo light commercial vehicles (including those equipped with electric engines).
AVTOVAZ will resume production of Largus vehicles only in summer of 2024, their sales in the market will be higher than under the baseline scenario. Sales of other LCV manufactured in Russia will increase in 2024, and they will be higher than those under the baseline scenario. Sales of electric EVM LCV will remain small.
In 2024, sales of Chinese brands in the Russian LCV market will grow by 6.03% on 2023. They will be negatively affected by the increased recycling tax for these vehicles.
LCV of other brands will be imported into Russia under parallel import in small volumes (higher than under the baseline scenario). Nevertheless, the volume of new LCV parallel import in 2024 will be less than in 2023 due to the increased recycling tax, stricter requirements for vehicle import by individuals, the high price for these vehicles, the impossibility of full-fledged warranty and service, and the unsuitability of these vehicles for Russian operating conditions.
State support measures for the LCV market will be fully implemented in 2024. The volume of their financing in 2024 will increase on 2023.
Starting Q II 2024, the key rate will likely decrease. This will result in the increase in new vehicle sales on credit and lease.
The macroeconomic situation in Russia will remain unstable. In 2024, GDP may grow by 1.7% on 2023, inflation will be 5.1%. Retail trade turnover may grow by 2.1% in 2024, while freight turnover of motor vehicles - by 6.2%.

According to the optimistic forecast scenario, mainly Russian and lesser Chinese brands will continue to be sold in the Russian LCV market in 2024. New vehicles imported under parallel imports and those of foreign brands manufactured on the territory of the People's Republic of China and "friendly" countries to the Russian Federation will also be sold.

Under the optimistic scenario, 103.37 thousand new LCV may be sold in 2024.

The pessimistic forecast scenario is based on the following prerequisites:

Sanctions against the Russian Federation will remain until the end of 2024.
In 2024, GAZ LCV sales in the Russian market will fall by 3.45% on 2023.
UAZ LCV sales will fall by 2.89%, while sales of SOLLERS light commercial vehicles will grow (their sales will be smaller than under the baseline scenario). In 2024, SOLLERS plans to launch production of new versions of Sollers Atlant and Argo light commercial vehicles (including those equipped with electric engines).
AVTOVAZ will resume production of Largus vehicles no sooner than September 2024, their sales in the market will remain small. Sales of other LCV manufactured in Russia will slightly exceed those in 2023. Sales of electric EVM LCV will remain small.
In 2024, sales of Chinese brands in the Russian LCV market will fall by 4.21% on 2023. They will be negatively affected by the increased recycling tax for these vehicles. There may be disruption of supplies from China due to political or other events.
LCV of other brands will be imported into Russia under parallel import in small volumes (lower than under the baseline scenario). The volume of new LCV parallel import in 2024 will be less than in 2023 due to the increased recycling tax, stricter requirements for vehicle import by individuals, the high price for these vehicles, the impossibility of full-fledged warranty and service, and the unsuitability of these vehicles for Russian operating conditions.
State support measures for the LCV market will be partially implemented in 2024.
Starting Q II 2024, the key rate will likely decrease. This will result in the increase in new vehicle sales on credit and lease.
The macroeconomic situation in Russia will remain unstable. In 2024, GDP may grow by 1.1% on 2023, inflation will be 8.3%. Retail trade turnover may grow by 1.1% in 2024, while freight turnover of motor vehicles - by 3.4%.

According to the pessimistic forecast scenario, mainly Russian and lesser Chinese brands will continue to be sold in the Russian LCV market in 2024. New vehicles imported under parallel imports and those of foreign brands manufactured on the territory of the People's Republic of China and "friendly" countries to the Russian Federation will also be sold.

Under the pessimistic scenario, 93.46 thousand new LCV may be sold in 2024.