06.12.2022 / New car market forecast for 2023

Basic forecast script takes into account following tendencies:

• Sanction measures against Russia will be actual up to the end of 2023.
• AutoVAZ will realize 70% of its manufacturing plan including 400 thousand vehicles
• Chinese brands will have sold at least 210 thousand vehicles in Russia and increase their share on the Russian market. So, new Chinese vehicle manufactures will be opened on the «Autotor» plant in Kaliningrad and on the «Nissan Manufacturing RUS» ex-platform in St. Petersburg. The general volume of the both platforms is expected to reach at least 50 thousand vehicles, which will be sold on the Russian market. Besides that, manufacturing and sales of Haval cars is expected to grow in 2023 in comparison with 2022, as well as Chinese brands import.
• Manufacturing and sales of «Moskvich 3» petrol versions will reach 30 thousand, «Moskvich 3e» electrocars will be sold in amount of 5 thousand, and Evolute electrocars – in amount of at least 10 thousand.
• Korean brands manufacturing will not be resumed in Russia, the vehicles will be supplied by parallel import.
• Russian dealers will manage to increase parallel import volume of new vehicles through «third» countries bypass the sanctions.
• Macroeconomic situation in Russia will still be unstable. The GDP will decline by 0,4% in comparison with 2022, the inflation rate will reach 10%.

According to the basic script, Russian automotive market will conserve domestic and Chinese brands in 2023 г. Besides that, vehicles supplied by parallel import, vehicles imported from India, Iran and, probably, other «friendly» countries (Vietnam etc.) and foreign vehicles produced on Chinese territory will be sold.

According to the basic script, 670 thousand new cars can be sold on the Russian market in 2023.

Optimistic forecast script takes into account following tendencies:

• Sanction measures against Russia will be actual up to the end of 2023.
• AutoVAZ will realize 95% of its manufacturing plan including 400 thousand vehicles.
• Chinese brands will have sold at least 260 thousand vehicles in Russia and increase their share on the Russian market. So, new Chinese vehicle manufactures will be opened on the «Autotor» plant in Kaliningrad and on the «Nissan Manufacturing RUS» ex-platform in St. Petersburg. The general volume of the both platforms is expected to reach at least 70 thousand vehicles, which will be sold on the Russian market. Besides that, manufacturing and sales of Haval cars is expected to grow in 2023 in comparison with 2022, as well as Chinese brands import.
• Manufacturing and sales of «Moskvich 3» petrol versions will reach 40 thousand, «Moskvich 3e» electrocars will be sold in amount of 10 thousand, and Evolute electrocars – in amount of at least 15 thousand.
• Korean brand vehicles will be imported by distribution networks.
• Russian dealers will manage to increase parallel import volume of new vehicles through «third» countries bypass the sanctions.
• Macroeconomic situation in Russia will stabilize. The GDP will grow by 0,5% in comparison with 2022, the inflation will slow down and reach the rate of 7,5%.

According to the optimistic script, Russian automotive market will conserve domestic and Chinese brands in 2023 г. Besides that, vehicles supplied by parallel import, vehicles imported from India, Iran and, probably, other «friendly» countries (Vietnam etc.) and foreign vehicles produced on Chinese territory will be sold.

According to the optimistic script, 845 thousand new cars can be sold on the Russian market in 2023.

Pessimistic forecast script takes into account following tendencies:

• Sanction measures against Russia will be actual up to the end of 2023 and will be toughened.
• AutoVAZ will realize 57% of its manufacturing plan including 400 thousand vehicles.
• Chinese brands will have sold at least 150 thousand vehicles in Russia and increase their share on the Russian market. Chinese vehicle manufactures on the «Autotor» plant in Kaliningrad and on the «Nissan Manufacturing RUS» ex-platform in St. Petersburg will not be opened. Besides that, manufacturing and sales of Haval cars is expected to stay in 2023 on the level of 2022, the growth of Chinese brands import in comparison with 2022.
• Manufacturing and sales of «Moskvich 3» petrol versions will reach 10 thousand, «Moskvich 3e» electrocars will be sold in amount of 2,5 thousand, and Evolute electrocars – in amount of at least 5 thousand.
• Korean brands will stop manufacturing and official dealership in Russia, these vehicles will be accessible only through parallel import.
• Russian dealers will not be able to increase significantly the parallel import volume of new vehicles through «third» countries because of the contra measures taken by sanction-supporting OEMs. Foreign OEMs decrease vehicle supplies in the countries, through those the parallel import is organized.
• Macroeconomic situation in Russia will worsen.  The GDP will decline by 2,5% in comparison with 2022, the inflation rate will reach 15%.
• The population purchasing power will decline, the part of customers will refocus on buying used vehicles including ones imported into Russia by individuals, independent traders and dealers.

According to the pessimistic script, Russian automotive market will conserve domestic and Chinese brands in 2023 г. Besides that, vehicles supplied by parallel import, small amounts of vehicles imported from India and Iran and foreign vehicles produced on Chinese territory will be sold.

According to the pessimistic script, 500 thousand new cars can be sold on the Russian market in 2023.

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