28.01.2026 / What awaits the car market in 2026

In 2025, the demand for cars decreased. The reason for the difficult market situation was both economic and political challenges, as well as changes in the country's legislation. Tatyana Arabadzhi, director at the marketing agency NAPI, spoke about factors that will influence the car market in 2026.

— Over 12 months of last year, prices for new cars grew by 6%, while those for used ones fell by 11%. How will car prices change in 2026 and what will contribute to this?

— New car prices will undoubtedly rise. Firstly, beginning December 1, 2025 and January 1, 2026, the recycling tax increased. Stocks, which have been actively selling out since last autumn, have noticeably decreased. Therefore, beginning spring, more and more new cars will enter the market at new recycling tax rates. Secondly, inflation and VAT increase to 22% will result in the growth of car prices.

Used car prices will rise due to growing prices for new cars, restrictions on the import of used cars by dealers and individuals, which occurred last year, and inflation.

— Along with the price, one of the factors determining the level of demand for cars is the loan availability. During 2025, the auto loan rate steadily decreased, what to expect in 2026?

— On the one hand, the loan rate decreases following the Central Bank rate. On the other hand, starting from January 1, 2026, Russian banks cannot estimate incomes of citizens who want to apply for a car loan using their own models. Now they must also rely on official income data.  As a result of such strictures, some customers will not be able to obtain loan approval. Similar situation will push down both auto loans and the market. Certainly, the market will adapt in the future, but in the first months of 2026, the number of auto loans issued is expected to fall. Financial programs offered by automakers will support the auto loan market.

— How will the situation in the automotive market change in 2026?

— The share of Russian cars will grow in the new car market, as locally produced cars are compensated for recycling tax, which helps curb price growth. Moreover, such cars are covered by all support programs. As a result, the share of cars imported under alternative import and through official channels will decrease.

— What factors can have a positive impact on car sales?

— The observed decrease in deposit rates makes these instruments less attractive, so part of the population is reorienting from savings model to large purchases, including cars.

Moreover, demand will grow if information about an additional increase in recycling tax rates becomes available during the year, as buyers will strive to be able to purchase a car at a more affordable price. A possible long-term ruble depreciation will have a similar impact.

Government support measures will also help the market – these are preferential auto loans, preferential auto leasing and public procurement.

— What is the new car sales forecast for 2026?

— If there are no sharp changes, then in 2026 new car sales may amount to 1.30 million units under the baseline scenario, 1.42 million units under the optimistic scenario, and 1.15 million units under the pessimistic scenario.